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peak phosphorus
Peak phosphorus is a concept to describe the point in time at which the maximum global phosphorus production rate is reached and is used in an equivalent way to the better known term peak oil.〔
Phosphorus is a finite (limited) resource which is relatively scarce and is not evenly distributed across the Earth. Only a few countries have significant reserves and these are (in the order of phosphate rock economic reserves): China, Morocco and Western Sahara, United States and Jordan.〔Rosemarin, A. (2010). (Peak Phosphorus, The Next Inconvenient Truth? - 2nd International Lecture Series on Sustainable Sanitation ), World Bank, Manila, October 15, 2010.〕
Means of phosphorus production - other than mining - are unavailable because of its non-gaseous environmental cycle. The predominant source of phosphorus comes in the form of phosphate rock and in the past guano. According to some researchers, Earth's phosphorus reserves are expected to be completely depleted in 50–100 years and peak phosphorus to be reached in approximately 2030.Others suggest that supplies will last for several hundreds of years.〔(IFDC.org - IFDC Report Indicates Adequate Phosphorus Resources ), Sep-2010〕 The question is not settled and researchers in different fields regularly publish different estimates of the rock phosphate reserves.
==Background==
The peak phosphorus concept is connected with the concept of planetary boundaries. Phosphorus, as part of biogeochemical processes, belongs to one of the nine "Earth system processes" which are known to have boundaries. As long as the boundaries are not crossed, they mark the "safe zone" for the planet.〔Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. & 26 others (2009) (Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity ). Ecology and Society 14(2): 32.〕
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